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National Weather Service Forecast
Mason, Michigan, U.S.A.
Forecast issued at 1:04 pm EST Jan 21, 2022 by the National Weather Service Grand Rapids, MI
Hazardous Weather Outlook
-    S Y N O P S I S    -
Forecast Discussion for GRR NWS Office
000 FXUS63 KGRR 211725 AFDGRR  Area Forecast Discussion National Weather
Service Grand Rapids MI 1225 PM EST Fri Jan 21 2022  LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation  .DISCUSSION...(Today through next Thursday) Issued at 336 AM EST
Fri Jan 21 2022  -- Fairly sunny except for lake effect snow Muskegon and
north --  It`s not entirely on radar currently as the boundary layer
convection is capped at 5000 feet, but there is a stationary band of lake-
effect snow from just offshore Ludington down to the middle of southern
Lake Michigan. Surface winds from airports surrounding the lake clearly
show a land breeze. And GOES-East satellite (recommend Nighttime
Microphysics RGB or Ch 14 Longwave IR) shows some fascinating cloud-top
divergence and evaporation as mass at the top of the boundary layer
emanates from the lake effect convection, completing the upper half of the
land breeze circulation.  At the surface a synoptic high is centered over
Lower Michigan this morning. As the high moves east this afternoon, winds
from the south- southwest increase and move the lake effect snow band
toward the West Michigan shore. There is consensus among the HREF members
of the band affecting Muskegon through Ludington this afternoon, with a
chance of western Ottawa, Newaygo, and Lake counties also catching some
light snow. But given the shallow nature of this lake effect convection and
how the band will become increasingly sheared and diffuse as it approaches
the shore, the chance of significant impacts to travel conditions seems
low.  On the other side of today`s forecast challenge, to the southeast of
Grand Haven and Big Rapids, we are going increasingly sunny through the
day. It can be an occupational hazard to go optimistic with sun in January
when we are socked in with clouds early in the morning, but there are some
reasonably large holes in the clouds opening up on satellite, and some of
the clouds are already thin enough to see the moon through. Weak subsidence
due to the high/ridging today should continue to erode the cloud cover,
while increasing south winds will make an attempt to bring that drier and
cloud-free air in northern Indiana/Ohio our way.  -- Chances of snow into
early next week --  A quick-moving clipper passes through Saturday morning.
Models have ticked up a bit with QPF/snow amounts northwest of Grand Rapids
due to lake enhancement, and impacts to travel conditions affecting US-31
and US-131 from a quick 1 to 3 inches of snow are probable at this point.
Cold air and cyclonic flow should keep at least light lake effect snow
going Saturday night.  An embedded shortwave rounding the base of the
synoptic trough may give southwest Michigan a quick shot of light
accumulations early Sunday morning.  Ensembles are pointing to another
clipper providing much of the area with light to moderate snow
accumulations and possible travel impacts on Monday.  Ensembles continue to
give us fairly high confidence of another shot of cold air passing through
on Tuesday and Wednesday. 

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion

4    D A Y    F O R E C A S T    A T    A    G L A N C E
 
This
Afternoon
This Afternoon: Sunny, with a steady temperature around 19. South wind around 6 mph.
Sunny

Tonight

Tonight: Increasing clouds, with a low around 11. Wind chill values as low as -3. Light south wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.
Increasing
Clouds
Saturday

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of snow showers, mainly after 1pm.  Cloudy, with a high near 25. Wind chill values as low as -3. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 11 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph.
Chance Snow
Showers and
Breezy
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow showers.  Cloudy, with a low around 15. West northwest wind 7 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.
Slight Chance
Snow Showers
Sunday

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of snow showers, mainly before 1pm.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 22. Northwest wind 6 to 8 mph.
Chance Snow
Showers
Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11.
Mostly Cloudy

Monday

Monday: Snow showers likely.  Cloudy, with a high near 28. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Snow Showers
Likely
Monday
Night
Monday Night: A chance of snow showers before 1am.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13.
Chance Snow
Showers
Tuesday

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 21.
Partly Sunny

 
Hi 19 °F Lo 11 °F Hi 25 °F Lo 15 °F Hi 22 °F Lo 11 °F Hi 28 °F Lo 13 °F Hi 21 °F
48 Hour Temperature Forecast
48 hour temperature forecast
48 Hour Precipitation Forecast
48 hour precipitation forecast
 
This Afternoon through Thursday
 
  This
Afternoon
This Afternoon: Sunny, with a steady temperature around 19. South wind around 6 mph.
Sunny

  Hi 19 °F
 
Sunny, with a steady temperature around 19. South wind around 6 mph.
 
 
  Tonight

Tonight: Increasing clouds, with a low around 11. Wind chill values as low as -3. Light south wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.
Increasing
Clouds
  Lo 11 °F
 
Increasing clouds, with a low around 11. Wind chill values as low as -3. Light south wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.
  Saturday

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of snow showers, mainly after 1pm.  Cloudy, with a high near 25. Wind chill values as low as -3. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 11 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph.
Chance Snow
Showers and
Breezy
  Hi 25 °F
 
A 30 percent chance of snow showers, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 25. Wind chill values as low as -3. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 11 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph.
 
 
  Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow showers.  Cloudy, with a low around 15. West northwest wind 7 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.
Slight Chance
Snow Showers
  Lo 15 °F
 
A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 15. West northwest wind 7 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.
  Sunday

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of snow showers, mainly before 1pm.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 22. Northwest wind 6 to 8 mph.
Chance Snow
Showers
  Hi 22 °F
 
A 30 percent chance of snow showers, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 22. Northwest wind 6 to 8 mph.
 
 
  Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11.
Mostly Cloudy

  Lo 11 °F
 
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11.
  Monday

Monday: Snow showers likely.  Cloudy, with a high near 28. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Snow Showers
Likely
  Hi 28 °F
 
Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
 
 
  Monday
Night
Monday Night: A chance of snow showers before 1am.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13.
Chance Snow
Showers
  Lo 13 °F
 
A chance of snow showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13.
  Tuesday

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 21.
Partly Sunny

  Hi 21 °F
 
Partly sunny, with a high near 21.
 
 
  Tuesday Night   Partly cloudy, with a low around 0.   Wednesday   Mostly sunny, with a high near 17.  
 
  Wednesday Night   Partly cloudy, with a low around 3.   Thursday   Partly sunny, with a high near 24.  
 
 
 
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