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There are no active watches, warnings or advisories for Ingham County, Michigan.
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- Mason Area Weather Stations - Columbia Lakes # 1 Columbia Lakes # 2 W Columbia Rd near Onondaga Rd Bond Park Area N College Rd near Hogsback Rd Mason Jewet Field Airport 72 Hour Observation History Lansing Year To Date Climate Plot Lansing Current Month Climate Plot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
National Weather Service Forecast |
Mason, Michigan, U.S.A. |
Forecast issued at 6:03 pm EDT May 29, 2023 by the National Weather Service Grand Rapids, MI |
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48 Hour Temperature and Dew Point Forecast DEW POINT: 60-64=Slightly Humid, 65-69=Humid, 70-74=Very Humid, Greater than 74=Oppressively Humid |
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48 Hour Precipitation Potential and Sky Cover Forecast |
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48 Hour Rain and Thunder Forecast |
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48 Hour Wind Forecast |
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>>> 7 Day Forecast with Hourly Graphs <<< |
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S E V E R E W E A T H E R I N F O R M A T I O N | ||
- Grand Rapids, Michigan Radar -
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Midwest Satellite |
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Day 1 Precipitation Quantity Forecast |
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Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast |
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Day 1 Probability of at least 4 inches of Snow |
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Advisories to the south |
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National Weather Service |
Grand Rapids, Michigan, U.S.A. |
- A R E A F O R E C A S T D I S C U S S I O N - |
000 FXUS63 KGRR 291909 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 308 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023 LATEST UPDATE... Short Term/Long Term/Marine/Fire Weather/Climate .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023 The upper-air pattern continues to be characterized by a Rex block over eastern North America, comprised of an upper high over the Great Lakes an upper low over the southeast CONUS, with fairly weak tropospheric flow over the region. At the surface, a broad synoptic ridge is draped over the region -- extending from a high over eastern Canada -- with a weak/diffuse surface low over the mid Atlantic coast. This regime is maintaining weak low-level easterly flow on a broad scale, but a mesoscale lake-breeze circulation has developed again this afternoon, similar to recent days. A modest increase in southeasterly low-level flow (10-20 kts at 925 mb) tonight should facilitate weak low-level moisture transport into the region. Short-range guidance suggests that surface dewpoints should generally increase after daybreak Tue as the convective boundary layer deepens and entrains this moisture, with mid 40s-mid 50s dewpoints likely to be common across the area during the afternoon. The arrival of this low-level moisture -- with a corresponding reduction in convective temps (likely into the mid 80s F) -- should yield widespread cumulus development across inland areas on Tue, given sufficient boundary-layer warming. High temps on Tue will likely be warmer than today, reaching the upper 80s to around 90 F across inland areas, given the expectation of warmer 850- mb temps. 12z HREF guidance suggests that isolated showers may develop on Tue afternoon along/east of the lake-breeze front, where cumulus may become sufficiently deep. However, RAP forecast profiles indicate a fairly deep and dry subcloud boundary layer, suggesting that evaporation/virga will be substantial beneath any precip-producing clouds. Will opt to maintain PoPs below 15 percent (threshold for slight-chance showers) with this update, but will introduce a slight chance of sprinkles away from the lakeshore. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023 Our focus in the long term portion of the forecast will be on rain chances, albeit small ones, through much of the period from Wednesday through Sunday, with some possible better chances for rain coming next Monday. We will see a trend of warmer temperatures through next weekend, and generally a slow increase in moisture. The moisture trend is a bit complicated, and we will discuss further below. Upper ridge will remain in control of the weather across the area into early next weekend in one form or another. This will keep widespread and appreciable rain out of the area likely into next weekend. There are caveats to this thinking though as we will see the potential for a few mainly diurnal showers and storms increase slightly for Wednesday and Thursday. What happens is that we will see a bit higher moisture move in with a southerly component to the low level flow develop. This will bring in sfc dew points into the 50s, and maybe even 60s by Thursday. This moisture will combine with a fairly stout lake breeze convergence band that is forecast by the models to pop a few showers and storms in the afternoon. Convergence is almost maximized with a synoptic flow from the SE, and a lake breeze from the NW developing. So while most of the area will stay dry, there could be some locally heavy downpours with slow moving cells as the lake breeze moves further inland. The rain chances might be stunted a bit for Friday and Saturday as the flow becomes more easterly by then, and advects a pocket of much drier air over the area. Temperatures will continue to warm at least a couple of degrees per day with almost full sun and good mixing taking place. We are then looking at a pattern change poised to take place in one way or another sometime next Sunday/Monday, with details to be ironed out. The general sense is that some strong upper energy across Canada will drop south and push a fairly potent backdoor cold front south through the area on the front side of the large scale ridge across the Plains. The interesting part of this is that the last data shows an upper low rotating toward the area from the NE, and a moisture feed off of the Atlantic. However this happens is quite uncertain at this time. There is a fairly decent signal in the Ensemble means that cooler air will replace the heat toward next weekend and then the following week. Rain chances will be quite uncertain depending on if the front will have some moisture to tap as it moves through, but it will be a better chance that strong ridging overhead. |
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